July 27, 2025
5 min read
Ciaran Lyons
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin’s major upside year will be 2026, signaling the end of the traditional four-year halving cycle.
Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Is in 2026: Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Cycle Dead
Bitcoin’s price could see significant upside in 2026, bucking the traditional four-year market cycle, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan. The prediction comes amid divided opinions among analysts on whether Bitcoin will stray from its historical halving pattern or peak in the coming months.Bitcoin may be in for a “good few years,” says Hougan
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said in an X video on Friday. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” he added. Hougan stated the four-year halving cycle “is dead” for several reasons, including the Bitcoin halving becoming “half as important” every four years and the current interest rate cycle being positive for crypto. Since April, former US President Donald Trump has publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, a potentially bullish catalyst for Bitcoin as lower rates make traditional assets like bonds and term deposits less appealing to investors. Hougan also noted that the chances of significant price pullbacks have decreased as the industry gains more clarity on regulations. “Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,” he said. Given the ongoing regulatory process and early stage of institutional adoption, Hougan believes Bitcoin likely has more upside in this cycle than historical trends suggest:“The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic 'four-year cycle' forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.”He identified the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies as the most significant “cyclical-style risk” for Bitcoin. “Bears watching and is significant,” Hougan said. Asset manager VanEck recently echoed this concern, warning that firms accumulating Bitcoin by issuing new stock or taking on debt are particularly vulnerable if Bitcoin’s price falls sharply.
Bitcoin more likely to see a “sustained steady boom”
Hougan forecasted that Bitcoin’s price rally will be steady rather than aggressive in the short term. “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said. “I could be wrong, and I'm certain there will be significant volatility,” he added. This comes days after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also declared the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory “is dead.” Ju explained:“My predictions were based on it — buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.”>
“Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought.”However, not all agree the pattern has changed. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows the historical pattern from 2020. Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October 2025, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Source attribution: Originally published at Cointelegraph on July 27, 2025.