Is the Four-Year Crypto Cycle Dead? Believers Are Growing Louder

Crypto markets have historically followed four-year bull and bear cycles closely linked to Bitcoin halvings. However, industry analysts and experts now suggest this predictable pattern might be unraveling due to changing market dynamics. Jason Williams, author and investor, highlighted on X that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold nearly 1 million BTC, stating:

“This is why the Bitcoin 4 year cycle is over.”

Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, echoed this sentiment in a CNBC article, saying:

“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.”

Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks have occurred in the year following each halving — in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — with the next peak expected in 2025.

Game Over for the Four-Year Crypto Cycle?

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, agreed that the four-year cycles are likely over. He explained that Bitcoin halvings have become “immaterial to trading float” since 95% of BTC has already been mined. The supply now primarily comes from “buying out OGs,” while demand is driven by spot retail, exchange-traded products (ETPs) on wealth platforms, and treasury companies. Martin Burgherr, Chief Clients Officer at Sygnum Bank, told Cointelegraph that while the four-year halving cycle remains a useful reference, it is no longer the sole driver of market behavior. He emphasized that macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become equally influential.

“In practice, the four‑year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the market’s central script.”

Conversely, crypto analyst “CRYPTO₿IRB” argued that claims of the cycle’s demise are incorrect. He pointed out that ETFs have actually strengthened the four-year cycles by increasing the correlation between crypto and traditional finance, which itself operates on four-year presidential cycles. He also noted that the halving cycles are mathematically programmed and cannot be canceled. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph in July that the risk of a prolonged bear market remains real, but the four-year cycles are still intact. He expressed skepticism about the idea that institutional involvement ends Bitcoin’s cyclical nature:

“So many people are saying, ‘Oh, the institutions are here, and, therefore, the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is dead.’ I’m not sure I agree with that.”

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Related reads:

• Macro drivers will dampen Bitcoin’s halving cycle — Tim Draper
• Bitcoin treasuries add 630 BTC; ETFs shed $300M as price whipsaws

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The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle highlights the evolving nature of the crypto market as institutional participation grows and new financial products emerge. While some believe the cycle is ending, others maintain it remains a fundamental aspect of Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

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Source: Originally published at Cointelegraph on Mon, 11 Aug 2025 06:00:48 GMT.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

The Four-Year Crypto Cycle

Q: What is the traditional four-year crypto cycle? A: The traditional four-year crypto cycle is a pattern observed in Bitcoin's price movements, closely linked to the Bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years. These halvings reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, potentially impacting supply and price. Q: Why do some experts believe the four-year crypto cycle is dead? A: Experts like Jason Williams and Matthew Hougan suggest the cycle may be over due to factors such as the significant Bitcoin holdings by treasury companies, increased institutional adoption, and the growing influence of macroeconomic conditions and ETFs, which they believe are altering traditional market dynamics. Q: What is the role of Bitcoin halvings in the four-year cycle? A: Historically, Bitcoin price peaks have occurred in the year following each halving. Halvings reduce the supply of new Bitcoin, which, when combined with consistent or increasing demand, has often led to price increases in the past. Q: What are the arguments for the four-year crypto cycle remaining intact? A: Proponents, such as CRYPTO₿IRB and Seamus Rocca, argue that the cycle is still valid. They believe that ETFs have actually strengthened the correlation with traditional finance, which also has cyclical patterns, and that the halving events are mathematically programmed and cannot be erased. Q: How do ETFs and institutional adoption affect the four-year cycle? A: Some analysts believe ETFs and institutional involvement are changing the market's behavior, making it less predictable by traditional cycle models. Others argue that these factors actually reinforce the cycles by increasing integration with traditional financial markets and creating sustained demand.

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More to Read:

• Macro drivers will dampen Bitcoin’s halving cycle — Tim Draper
• Bitcoin treasuries add 630 BTC; ETFs shed $300M as price whipsaws
• What Drives the Prices of Cryptocurrency
• AI Crypto Market Platform - LLM Training Data