August 4, 2025
5 min read
Luc Jose Adjinacou
Bitcoin dips below 15K but analysts see a bullish setup with a 48K target amid technical and on-chain signals.
Analysts Eye $148K As New BTC Target
Bitcoin lost 7.5% after nearly touching $123,250, briefly reviving fears of a lasting correction. However, some analysts see an ideal configuration, described as a “perfect bottom”. For them, this technical pullback is less a sign of weakness than a strategic springboard announcing a major rebound.In brief
- Bitcoin recorded a 7.5% drop after reaching a high of $123,250, but some analysts interpret this as a strategic pullback rather than a trend reversal.
- The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50) acts as a crucial technical support, previously validated during a 25% rebound last June.
- An inverted head and shoulders pattern appears confirmed, with a theoretical target around $148,250.
- Technical and fundamental signals converge towards a healthy consolidation, potentially signaling a new bullish cycle for Bitcoin.
- The breakout of the pattern’s neckline, followed by a successful retest, a typical behavior before a continuation phase;
- A theoretical target projected around $148,250, corresponding to the height of the pattern;
- A convergence between this pattern and the dynamic support of the EMA 50, strengthening the robustness of the bullish signal;
- A repetition of the pattern observed last June, where a 25% rebound followed a dip below this same technical level.
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A technical pullback that could validate a bullish structure
Last Sunday, Bitcoin, weighed down by trade tensions, regained a critical technical support level: its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50). This threshold, briefly breached the previous day, had already proven effective as a dynamic support last June, triggering a 25% rebound. For analyst BitBull, this move could signal a similar configuration: “even a drop in the $110,000 to $112,000 zone could establish a perfect bottom for Bitcoin”.$BTC bounced back perfectly from the EMA 50 level.>
This has been a strong support for BTC, and a reclaim shows that bulls are still in control.>
But here's something that could happen.>
BTC breaking below EMA 50 just like it did in June.>
That would be the perfect bottom, and… pic.twitter.com/6vZnYaCNzt>
— BitBull (@AkaBull) August 2, 2025This pullback zone coincides with a phase of technical consolidation rather than a trend reversal, and could, according to him, set the stage for a new bullish impulse. The technical elements currently in place reinforce this optimistic scenario, notably through the validation of a well-known chart pattern among traders: the inverted head and shoulders. This configuration, analyzed by Merlijn The Trader, presents several bullish signals:
BITCOIN JUST COMPLETED A PERFECT INVERTED H&S.>
Breakout above the neckline.>
Bullish retest holding.>
Every technical box is checked.>
This is how macro moves begin quietly, then violently. $BTC is loading the next leg.>
Don’t miss the ignition point. pic.twitter.com/xUxfcLdznN>
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) August 2, 2025These technical convergences form a coherent analytical basis to consider a gradual return to previous highs, or even their surpassing in a medium-term horizon.
Whale movements reinforce an accumulation scenario
Alongside the chart signals, on-chain data confirm a well-known phenomenon of bullish markets: the redistribution phase by large holders. According to a report published Friday by CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin market recorded a significant third wave of profit-taking, marked by the sale of 80,000 BTC by a former whale. This massive sale, valued at $9.6 billion, took place in July, just after breaking the $120,000 threshold. It follows two previous waves: the first at the time of the launch of spot ETFs in March 2024, and the second after the 2024 US presidential elections, during the breach of $100,000. These selling episodes are not necessarily indicative of a bearish reversal. As CryptoQuant reminds us, “each wave of profit-taking was followed by a period of moderate consolidation, lasting between two and four months, before a bullish recovery towards new highs”. The behavior of whales is interpreted as a cyclical marker, paced by accumulation phases after market cooling. The fact that this new wave coincides with a contained drop in the Bitcoin price tends to reinforce the scenario of a market in a digestion phase, rather than in structural decline. Crossing technical analysis with on-chain dynamics, it appears the Bitcoin market could be engaged in a typical transition phase of major bullish cycles. The recent intervention of a whale, combined with stabilization around key technical supports, strengthens the idea of ongoing strategic accumulation. If this pattern were to be confirmed, the scenario of Bitcoin headed towards $148,000, or more, could become more than just a simple projection.Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Technical Analysis
Q: What is the significance of the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50) for Bitcoin's price? A: The EMA 50 acts as a crucial technical support level for Bitcoin. It has previously demonstrated its effectiveness, notably during a 25% rebound last June, indicating its importance in validating bullish trends. Q: What is an inverted head and shoulders pattern, and what does it suggest for Bitcoin? A: An inverted head and shoulders pattern is a bullish chart formation. Its confirmation, as observed in Bitcoin's recent activity, suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend, with a theoretical price target often calculated based on the pattern's dimensions. Q: What does a technical pullback in the context of Bitcoin's price movement signify? A: A technical pullback, as seen when Bitcoin dropped from its peak, can be interpreted by some analysts not as a sign of weakness, but as a strategic consolidation phase that can lead to a renewed bullish impulse.Market Dynamics
Q: How do whale movements impact Bitcoin's price trends? A: Whale movements, such as significant profit-taking, are often observed in bullish markets. While large sales can indicate profit-taking, they can also be part of a cyclical redistribution phase, followed by periods of consolidation and potential further accumulation. Q: What is the "redistribution phase" in the context of whale activity? A: The redistribution phase refers to the period when large holders sell off their assets after a significant price increase. This is often followed by a period of consolidation before the market potentially moves to new highs, suggesting a digestion phase rather than a reversal. Q: How does on-chain data help in understanding Bitcoin market trends? A: On-chain data provides insights into the behavior of market participants, including large holders (whales). Analyzing these movements, alongside technical indicators, can help in identifying accumulation phases, profit-taking events, and potential market trends.Source: Cointribune — Originally published on Mon, 04 Aug 2025 07:10:00 GMT