August 9, 2025
5 min read
Luc Jose Adjinacou
Bitcoin, Discipline And Luck, The Real Winning Trio
Turning a few tens of dollars invested in bitcoin into billions: the scenario is a dream. However, behind this simplistic equation, trader Techdev recalls a much less glamorous reality. In a viral post, he points out that achieving such a result would have required unwavering conviction and exceptional psychological resilience in the face of market shocks. A message that resonates as bitcoin has just crossed a new all-time high above $123,000 on July 14, reigniting myths and speculation.In brief
- A few tens of dollars placed in Bitcoin in the early 2010s could have turned into billions today.
- Holding your BTC for more than a decade is a rare feat in the face of extreme volatility.
- Spectacular rises followed by steep drops would have discouraged most investors.
- Discipline, psychology and sometimes luck are important to build long-term crypto wealth.
- An ascent to 1.7 million dollars, followed by a collapse to $170,000;
- A rebound up to 110 million dollars, before falling back to 18 million;
- Daily fluctuations sometimes exceeding 10% over the period. According to data from Curvo, bitcoin showed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 102.79% over 13 years. However, behind this impressive figure lies extreme volatility which would have pushed most investors to sell well before reaching colossal fortunes. Only those able to keep their assets at all costs could have turned a small initial investment into historic wealth.
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Holding over time: a rare feat
While bitcoin has soared again after the surprise appointment of a pro-crypto economist to the Fed, Techdev in his message posted on social network X and viewed more than 3.5 million times states:"If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010, I’d have $2.8B now. No. If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to:>
$1k → $100k → $1.7M>
and did nothing>
Then watched $1.7M go to $170k>
and still did nothing>
Then watched $170k go to $110M>
and still did nothing>
Then…">
— TechDev (@TechDev52) August 4, 2025The argument is clear. It is not enough to have invested early; you also need to have held your BTC through more than a decade of historic corrections. To support his point, Techdev cites several market sequences illustrating the roller coaster rides experienced by long-term holders:
Experienced losses and forgotten fortunes
For entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Techdev’s analysis rings true:"Everyone thinks they would have held bitcoin from pennies to billions of dollars.>
Easier said than done.">
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) August 6, 2025Many commentators on the post have shared concrete experiences, mentioning BTC spent years ago on trivial purchases, now valued at millions. Others confessed to losing access to their wallets, taking with them fortunes now unrecoverable. Erick Pinos, ecosystem manager at Nibiru Chain, adds a psychological dimension:
"Making the choice every day, every hour, not to sell, for years.">
— Erick Pinos (@erickpinos) August 4, 2025For some, the solution was complete and simple forgetfulness. Early investors who set aside their private keys without thinking for years, only discovering the astronomical value of their holdings once bitcoin was massively adopted. This disparity in trajectories reminds us that today’s bitcoin billionaires represent only a tiny fraction of the first buyers. Techdev’s statements put into perspective the romanticized story of the “stroke of genius” of bitcoin’s early buyers. Investing early was never enough: discipline, psychology, and sometimes even luck played a decisive role. In a market where each new all-time high rekindles the same fantasies, this reminder could encourage rethinking long-term investment strategies, far from simplistic calculations and retrospective illusions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
The Psychology of Long-Term Crypto Investment
Q: What emotional and psychological factors are crucial for successful long-term cryptocurrency investing? A: Successful long-term crypto investing requires significant psychological resilience, unwavering conviction, and the ability to endure extreme market volatility without succumbing to panic selling. Q: How does extreme volatility impact investors, and what is the key to overcoming it? A: Extreme volatility can lead most investors to sell their assets prematurely due to fear. The key to overcoming it lies in strong discipline and holding onto investments through significant price swings. Q: What are some common pitfalls that prevent investors from realizing significant gains in crypto? A: Common pitfalls include spending early investments on trivial purchases, losing access to wallets, and emotional decision-making driven by market fluctuations rather than a long-term strategy. Q: Is it simply luck that makes some early crypto investors incredibly wealthy? A: While luck might play a small role, Techdev's analysis emphasizes that discipline, psychological fortitude, and a consistent long-term strategy are far more critical for building substantial crypto wealth than luck alone. Q: How does the romanticized narrative of early crypto investors' success differ from the reality? A: The romanticized story often overlooks the immense psychological challenges and discipline required to hold assets through years of dramatic price drops and recoveries, suggesting it was a simple "stroke of genius" when in reality it involved deep personal resilience.About Holding Bitcoin and Crypto Assets
Q: What does it take to hold Bitcoin for over a decade and potentially turn a small investment into billions? A: Holding Bitcoin for over a decade to achieve such gains requires an extraordinary level of conviction, the ability to remain steadfast through historic corrections, and an emotional detachment from short-term market noise. Q: What are some examples of extreme market sequences that long-term Bitcoin holders have endured? A: Long-term holders have experienced sequences such as an ascent to $1.7 million followed by a crash to $170,000, and subsequent rebounds to $110 million before falling back to $18 million, alongside daily fluctuations often exceeding 10%. Q: What is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin over a significant period, and what does it imply? A: Bitcoin has shown an impressive CAGR of over 100% over 13 years, but this figure is underpinned by extreme volatility that typically deters most investors from maintaining their positions long enough to capture these gains. Q: Is simply investing early in Bitcoin enough to become a billionaire? A: No, investing early is only the first step. The crucial factors are the discipline to hold through volatility, sound psychological management, and sometimes a degree of luck in timing and preservation of assets. Q: How important is financial discipline in long-term cryptocurrency investment? A: Financial discipline is paramount. It involves resisting the urge to sell during dips, managing emotions, and sticking to a predetermined investment strategy, which are all critical components of building wealth over time.Source: Bitcoin, Discipline And Luck, The Real Winning Trio on Cointribune.